stock earning ER option

Gap rules

Gap rules are in:
1. Go with all gaps that don’t fill right away. That means that you don’t fade it if it’s not fading!
2. Larger gaps often don’t fill all the way or at all on the first day.
3. If the gap fills (which means we get to Friday’s RTH HIGH, not CLOSE) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of an afternoon rally increase.
4. Gaps of larger than $10 are often difficult to trade especially early and will often spend the day going sideways as the market digests the gain. Better opportunities for day timeframe players are often found in individual stocks rather than in S&P or Nasdaq futures.

tick date preDayClose open gap high low close intrDayChg preChg pctChg ndpctchg
SPY 2001-09-24 97.28 99.72 2.44 101.16 99.06 100.70 0.98 -1.45 3.52 1.04
SPY 2008-10-13 88.50 93.87 5.37 101.35 89.95 101.35 7.48 -2.43 14.52 -1.48
SPY 2008-10-20 93.21 95.35 2.14 99.10 94.09 98.81 3.46 -0.60 6.01 -2.99
SPY 2009-03-23 76.71 78.74 2.03 82.29 78.31 82.22 3.48 -2.82 7.18 -1.97
SPY 2010-05-10 111.26 115.81 4.55 116.65 114.91 116.16 0.35 -1.49 4.40 -0.28
SPY 2011-08-22 112.64 115.17 2.53 115.23 112.41 112.73 -2.44 -1.63 0.08 3.29
SPY 2011-10-10 115.71 117.68 1.97 119.63 117.67 119.58 1.90 -0.67 3.34 0.10
SPY 2011-11-28 116.34 119.54 3.20 120.18 118.82 119.71 0.17 -0.19 2.90 0.28
SPY 2011-12-05 124.86 126.84 1.98 127.18 125.44 126.22 -0.62 -0.09 1.09 0.03
SPY 2016-02-22 192.00 193.87 1.87 194.95 193.79 194.78 0.91 -0.05 1.45 -1.26
SPY 2016-06-20 206.52 208.82 2.30 209.61 207.75 207.85 -0.97 -0.89 0.64 0.28

 

 

ER trade review for the week of 4/17/2017

Sold MS May 05 41PUT at 0.92 ;
Sold IBM 172.5/175 April Call Spread at 0.84
Buy NFLX APRIL 140/135/130 Butterfly at 0.73
Buy QCOM APRIL 52/50/48 Butterfly @ 0.35
Buy STK April 26/25/24 Butterfly @ 0.2
Sold HA May 46PUT @0.72,
Sold V Jun -90P @2.55
Sold V May 92.5 Covered Call

Two of the three Butterfly trades failed, both had profit at one time, but expired worthless at Friday. STK won 2x Make the whole group trade still profitable.
All other trades are winning trade. One existing holding position(GS Sold PUT) got hit.

4/15/2017 Sp500 pullback wave analysis (by Seed)

The sp500 had a very weak close on last Thursday at 2328.95, decisively broke down 2340. The next stop of sp500 is around 2300. By using the wave 5-3-4-a to wave 5-3-4-b fib extensions to have following estimation of the end of wave 5-3-4 (5-3-4-c)

  • 100% fib: 2322.25
  • 123.6% fib: 2309.1 (nearby gap: 2307.9)
  • 132.8% fib: 2300.7
  • 150% fib: 2294.1 (nearby gap 2295)
  • 161.8% fib replaced by wave 5-3-3 0.618 fib: 2279.81 (nearby gap 2280.74)
  • 200% fib: 2266.14 (nearby gap: 2265)
  • 5% pull back rule from 2400.98 high is 2280.93
In summary, either one of the above fibs can act as supports to create bounce, if the bounce can turn into a reversal is to see if it can surpass the resistance zone [2340,2350] and stand above it.
Note: my personal opinion is not for investment but for education and illustration.

4/8/2017 sp500 miniature wave structure analysis

The most concern for every investor or trader is what direction and where the market will go next several days or weeks.
  • long term still bull market, all monthly, weekly, relatively longer term daily MAs are all moving up firmly
  • only concern is the short term market direction and where to stop the current weakness
  • after market hit 2400 (wave 5-3-3), if this down wave 5-3-4 has been already finished or not is still in question
    • the probability is go with wave 5-3-4 not done yet (VIX future is in contango, potential shoot up)
    • line in the sand is bull defending line 2340
    • even the wave 5-3-4 not done yet, where will it make a stop: most probably double bottom: 2322, or 2300

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustartion

3/30/2017: sp500 update By Seed

The next several trading sessions’ possible market path and direction. Tomorrow 3/31/2017 the index will  try the upper trend line:

  1. directly break out the trend line and march higher (less possibility, continue up for 4 days already)
  2. touch the trend line and reverse back down to look for support, 2352~2355 area is key to watch, unless this zone is break down (short should open shot), still buy dip (the index will meander inside the falling triangle and look for opportunity for breaking out)

My personal opinion is not for investment purpose, but for education and illustration.