The following chart is the gold/silver index vs US dollar chart. Since the index bottom out in Jan 2016, its price move back up violently. It seems the bull trend has already finished the wave 1 up and wave 2 down, is on the way of wave 3 up. The following projection is based on the bull trend (there are definitively some cases that the bull trend need to be scratched)
- Assume this is a new uptrend with five waves up
- wave 1: [0.385 , 1.199] (finished)
- wave 2: [1.199, 0.696] (right on 0.382 fib, finished)
- wave 3 is projected [0.696, 1.51] (1.618 fib) or [0.696, 2.01] (2.618 fib)
- wave 4’s projection is better to wait for wave 3’s finish
- same for wave 5’s projection
In what scenario, the bull trend should be scratched?
- The price break down 0.696, the wave 3 is invalid, then it may be still in the corrective wave of previous down trend from 2011’s top.
- The price break down 0.385, it is definitely sill in the corrective wave of previous down trend from 2011’s top.
In summary, this future price projection is based on Elliott wave pattern. So far the upo wave 1 and corrective wave 2 are line up for fib retracement. Let’s see how the projected 3rd wave up perform. Usually the 3rd wave up is strongest thrust wave. However, the up wave has smaller sub-waves, do not expect up wave will go up straightly. There will be corrective waves within 3rd wave up. The key is can this 3rd wave up take out wave 1 high 1.199. If not, this bull trend theory is invalid. If yes, stay with your trade on course for the target 1.51 or 2.01. When the 3rd hit the target, wave 4 projection will be updated.